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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."